I recently posted 10 questions the RTC really needs to answer about the plans for a trail that prioritizes rail on the unusable train tracks that stretch through Santa Cruz County. I wanted to focus on the second and third question, When will construction start? When Will the trains start running?
“We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard…” - John F. Kennedy, September 12, 1962
Massive Projects. President Kennedy at his famous address at Rice University set in motion one of the largest most revolutionary engineering projects ever. To travel to the moon. And the very first sentence after his proclamation of WHAT we were going to do, he defined WHEN the project would be completed.
Santa Cruz County’s ambitious Zero Emission Passenger Rail and Trail project promises to revolutionize local transportation, offering a greener, more sustainable alternative to car-centric commuting. Yet, beneath the visionary rhetoric lies a troubling reality: the project is not fully funded, and its timeline feels more like a pipe dream than a concrete plan. While its intentions are noble, the execution—or lack thereof—is a glaring reminder of how big ideas can falter under the weight of bureaucratic inertia and fiscal uncertainty.
The Funding Gap: A Plan Without a Wallet
The project’s proponents tout its transformative potential, but the financial backbone needed to support it remains elusive. Initial estimates place the total cost, from what little we know, is in the billions, yet funding secured so far is only a fraction of that only a portion of the trail estimate and none of the rail estimate has been funded. Relying on state and federal grants, along with potential local sales tax initiatives (with many of the communities in the county at the maximum amount allowed by the state), introduces layers of unpredictability. Economic downturns, political shifts, natural disasters or competing priorities could derail the funding pipeline, leaving the project perpetually half-baked.
Meanwhile, inflation and rising construction costs are only making the funding shortfall more pronounced. Every year the project has been “in the hands of consultants”, the price tag swells, further complicating the RTC’s ability to deliver on its promises.
The Timeline That Stretches Into Infinity
Having a commuter train in Santa Cruz is not just a flip of a switch. Even with funding secured, the estimated completion timeline for the rail and trail stretches into decades. Recent projections indicate that some sections of the trail may not be usable until the 2030s, while the passenger rail might not come online until the 2040s—or later. By the time the project is complete, the needs of Santa Cruz County could have drastically changed, rendering its utility questionable.
This protracted timeline also undermines public confidence. Residents who were initially excited about the project are now skeptical that it will ever materialize, especially with the options presented in the most recent public meetings. Detouring trail users onto busy and high speed streets, limited stops, no stops planned with coordination with Metro bus lines and lack of amenities and safety features at proposed stations. The longer the county takes to deliver results, the more likely voters are to abandon support for future funding measures.
Paralysis by Analysis
The endless studies, reports, and public forums required to keep the project moving forward are emblematic of a larger issue: decision-making paralysis. While public input is essential, the drawn-out process of gathering consensus and lack of town-hall type forums has slowed the project to a crawl. Every delay for another feasibility study or environmental impact report is time and money lost.
The Risk of Becoming Obsolete
Technology and transportation trends are evolving rapidly. By the time Santa Cruz’s zero-emission rail and trail are operational, they may already be outpaced by innovations like E-Bikes, zero emission bus service, advanced ride-sharing platforms, or even more flexible transit systems. Without agility in its planning, the project risks being an expensive relic before it even opens.
What Needs to Change
If Santa Cruz County is serious about delivering on the promise of the Zero Emission Passenger Rail and Trail, it must act with realistic expectations. This starts with simply scoping the magnitude of this project in a transparent fashion to see if continuing to throw money and resources at this project really makes sense. A clear, accountable project management structure with transparent milestones is essential to regain public trust.It’s OK, and actually much better for the community if we accept this is not the right solution for our community now, rather than after we build it and realized what a stress it puts on our public infrastructure.
County leaders must be prepared to make tough choices: Is the dual rail-and-trail vision feasible, or should resources be redirected to prioritize one over the other? Is there any successful example in the western United States of a suburban commuter rail transit system that does not go to a major city without a transfer? I can’t seem to find one. A scaled-down project leveraging our existing resources to scale would be infinitely more impactful than an ambitious vision that never leaves the drawing board.
Taking Action
If you share these concerns, now is the time to speak up. Contact your local representatives from the links at linktr.ee/coastaltrail , attend public meetings, and demand a reevaluation of the Rail Trail project. Support grassroots organizations such as Santa Cruz County Greenway sccgreenway.org and the Santa Cruz County Coastal Trail Conservancy coastaltrail.org that are advocating for more fiscally and environmentally responsible solutions. Share your voice through letters to the editor, petitions, and social media campaigns.
Santa Cruz County cannot afford to continue to go down this fixed rail path. We have real transit and environmental issues that need to be solved now, not decades from now. The dream of a zero-emission transportation system is worth pursuing, but with urgency. Continuing to try to justify a train without realistic planning and a target end date, it will remain just that—a dream.
Comentarios